Pecan Supply Squeeze vs. China's Booming Demand

31 Jul.,2025

Global Pecan Supply Tightens Amid Rising Demand: INC Roundtable Highlights Critical Industry Challenges

 

 

Pecan Supply Squeeze vs. China's Booming Demand

Pecan Supply Squeeze vs. China's Booming Demand

Global Pecan Supply Tightens Amid Rising Demand: INC Roundtable Highlights Critical Industry Challenges

 

The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) recently warned at a roundtable that the global pecan industry faces a pivotal juncture, with persistent supply constraints and escalating demand exacerbating low inventories and high-cost challenges.

Production & Supply Contraction

  • 2025/26 Crop Year Forecast:

    • Global in-shell pecan production expected to drop 4%

    • Kernel output to decline 6%

  • Supply Reduction:

    • In-shell supply to fall 5% (from 373,840 MT to 355,500 MT)

    • Kernel supply to decrease 6% (from 189,400 MT to 178,200 MT)

  • Critical Advisory: Buyers urged to secure inventories within 18 months due to historically low stocks.

 

Regional Production Drivers

  • United States:

    • Hurricane Helene (Sept 2024) permanently destroyed 25% of mature orchards

    • Forecasts 6% overall production decline

  • Mexico:

    • *In-shell/kernel output to plunge 14%/17%* due to:
      ✗ No new plantings in years
      ✗ Water scarcity
      ✗ Soaring production costs

    • Loses "top producer" status to emerging U.S. regions

  • Growth Exceptions:

    • South Africa: +7% (40,000 MT)

    • China & Brazil: Triple-digit growth
      (China’s domestic output still insufficient for surging local demand)

 

High-Cost Challenges

  • Production costs significantly exceed walnuts/almonds due to:

    • Low yield per hectare

    • Extended tree maturation (7–10 years)

  • Compounding factors:

    • Trade friction

    • Inflation + rising interest rates

Tariff Impacts & Market Shifts

  • China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pecans:

    • Buyers shifting to South Africa/Mexico

    • Recent tariff reduction (U.S. 35% → China 10%; *90-day validity*)

  • Long-term uncertainty:

    • Industry trust recovery requires years even with trade agreements

Emerging Consumption Trends

  • Core Markets (85% global demand): U.S., Mexico, China

    • China: Snack innovations proliferating + rising consumer awareness

  • Growth Frontiers (15% demand):

    • Europe & Middle East:
      ✓ Germany: Consumer recognition surged 60% → 70% (2022–2024)
      ✓ UK: Marketing campaigns + packaging innovation driving snack adoption