Global Pecan Supply Tightens Amid Rising Demand: INC Roundtable Highlights Critical Industry Challenges
The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) recently warned at a roundtable that the global pecan industry faces a pivotal juncture, with persistent supply constraints and escalating demand exacerbating low inventories and high-cost challenges.
Production & Supply Contraction
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2025/26 Crop Year Forecast:
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Global in-shell pecan production expected to drop 4%
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Kernel output to decline 6%
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Supply Reduction:
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In-shell supply to fall 5% (from 373,840 MT to 355,500 MT)
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Kernel supply to decrease 6% (from 189,400 MT to 178,200 MT)
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Critical Advisory: Buyers urged to secure inventories within 18 months due to historically low stocks.
Regional Production Drivers
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United States:
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Hurricane Helene (Sept 2024) permanently destroyed 25% of mature orchards
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Forecasts 6% overall production decline
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Mexico:
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*In-shell/kernel output to plunge 14%/17%* due to:
✗ No new plantings in years
✗ Water scarcity
✗ Soaring production costs -
Loses "top producer" status to emerging U.S. regions
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Growth Exceptions:
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South Africa: +7% (40,000 MT)
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China & Brazil: Triple-digit growth
(China’s domestic output still insufficient for surging local demand)
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High-Cost Challenges
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Production costs significantly exceed walnuts/almonds due to:
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Low yield per hectare
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Extended tree maturation (7–10 years)
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Compounding factors:
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Trade friction
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Inflation + rising interest rates
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Tariff Impacts & Market Shifts
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China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pecans:
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Buyers shifting to South Africa/Mexico
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Recent tariff reduction (U.S. 35% → China 10%; *90-day validity*)
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Long-term uncertainty:
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Industry trust recovery requires years even with trade agreements
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Emerging Consumption Trends
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Core Markets (85% global demand): U.S., Mexico, China
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China: Snack innovations proliferating + rising consumer awareness
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Growth Frontiers (15% demand):
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Europe & Middle East:
✓ Germany: Consumer recognition surged 60% → 70% (2022–2024)
✓ UK: Marketing campaigns + packaging innovation driving snack adoption
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